The June European Parliament elections turned into a no-confidence vote in the government, it is too soon to write off the Center Party and populism is alive an well, simply having donned a few new faces, Jana Toom writes on News.ERR.
First. European elections as a vote of no confidence in the government. Theoretically, such elections serve the purpose of picking people to represent Estonia at the European Union level, in the European Parliament. Alas, that theory is as far removed from the actual situation than Brussels is from the average Estonian citizen.
The campaign revolved around defense and security policy, which is absurd as these matters are not decided in the European Parliament. But the right-wing parties, from the Reform Party and Isamaa to EKRE, Parempoolsed and Eesti 200, were just fine with it, considering it their area of expertise, and convinced that just like Pavlov's dog, the voter would back them simply upon hearing the world "security." It also suited the Koos party looking to pick up protest votes.
This didn't exactly pan out. The difference in the results of Reform and Isamaa, which are near twins, was down to something else. Namely that Isamaa represents the opposition while Reform heads up the coalition. That is why Isamaa more than doubled its vote yield from 2019, while Reform lost 8 percent of its votes. The ruling parties (Reform, SDE, Eesti 200 – ed.) didn't even manage 40 percent between them, with the voter simply stating that they are not fond of the coalition.
Should Kaja Kallas resign? I believe she should.
But it is clear that she will not, especially now that she's on track for Josep Borrell's job. That is also why fellow Reform members aren't putting pressure on her. The Kaja Kallas problem will resolve itself.
The new prime minister can use this situation to adjust the government's focus or even create a new coalition, [for example] by getting rid of the lame duck that is Eesti 200 and replacing them with Isamaa. That said, I'm afraid none of this would solve Estonia's problems, with continued efforts by Reform to drag Estonia into a tax system to benefit the wealthy minority. Following cosmetic changes, the course will be the same, as will all the consequences.
Second. Do not rush to write off the Center Party. Which is just what was collectively done leading up to the elections. The media was stoked. While a few gravediggers, like Oleg Samorodni on Delfi and Jan Levtšenko on Postimees, are still brandishing their shovels, the fact is that Center almost repeated its 2019 result, thanks to our voters and despite many obstacles.
Many abandoning ship, depressing financial situation (we literally campaigned on our word and flew with one wing tied behind our back), a massive slander campaign in the media and Aivo Peterson's (Koos) participation in the election...
It is clear that Koos pulled away some of our voters but this also begs the realization that Center found new ones. And no matter what anyone says, they are not just Estonian Russians, they include Estonians.
For those who did not wish to vote for the coalition or the radical options, like EKRE and Koos, the choice was really between Isamaa and Center. Not everyone can be an Isamaa fan it seems, as the party is second only to EKRE in terms of how far right it is on the political scale, while right-wing policy has hopelessly exhausted more than a few people in Estonia.
It is a huge and widely known problem of Estonian politics. There is no one left of the Center Party, more so as the Social Democrats are mainly just endorsing Reform Party policy. Center refrained from this when in coalition with right-wing forces by holding back its partners or publicly disagreeing, which is why we now find ourselves in the opposition.
And even should SDE one day remember the definition of social democracy, the imbalance would still be massive, with just these two on one side and Isamaa, Reform, EKRE, Parempoolsed and Eesti 200 on the other. I understand that Jaak Madison is trying to create yet another right-wing movement. Good luck to him, while the question remains whether there is any room left in what is already an overcrowded political landscape.
If everyone in Estonia could vote, a classic non-radical left-wing party, like the German SPD, could have a chance in Estonia. But most of our least fortunate people do not have the right to vote, and the situation is what it is. That is the effect our citizenship policy has on Estonia's economic situation. What we do, we do to ourselves.
What is more, Center's candidates came out on top in Narva, Kohtla-Järve, Jõhvi, Lüganuse and in three Tallinn districts. Overthrown Tallinn Mayor Mihhail Kõlvart (Center) got 27,565 votes, while incumbent Jevgeni Ossinovski (SDE) only managed 990. So much for the voice of the people...
Third. Populism is still with us, with [former Center Party member] Jüri Ratas the most conspicuous example.
It turns out that a politician who not only changed parties but shifted his entire worldview in only a short time can attract masses of voters. True, it takes swimming in icy water, pushups and potato farming to pull it off – oh, and you need to film all of it. While everyone is scrambling to make their presence known in the era of Instagram and TikTok, including yours truly, does it really outweigh a person rebranding themselves without so much as a second thought?
Turns out it does. I consider it a sign of society's immaturity when a politician is elected based on their morning swim routine. Try selling Ratas' social media to people in Western Europe. An Irish acquaintance of mine looked at Jüri Ratas' sporting feats with an expressionless face and said that if a politician tried that in Ireland, few would vote for them. Impossible there, but here...
However, meaningless populism only works at first. We've seen it in both Res Publica and Eesti 200.
For Jüri, the most interesting period is only starting. For example, he cannot give up his seat on the Tallinn City Council (lest the coalition there lose its single-vote majority) and it will be interesting to see him skip European Parliament sittings in light of this. No one is going to suspend a sitting in Strasbourg or Brussels because a single delegate needs to be present in Tallinn to approve the "Influencer of the Year" award. One needs to do quite a lot of work in the European Parliament, with little time left over for doing pushups.
Fourth. What about the rest of the results? The Greens' failure was predictable as few people in Estonia, as well as in the rest of the EU, harbor warm feelings toward the green transition. The overall results of European Parliament elections suggest course adjustments are in store.
The fact that Eesti 200 got fewer votes than Koos surprised even yours truly, as did what amounted to a respectable debut by Parempoolsed (Right-wingers). Still, I believe what we are seeing is the same phenomenon simply in different stages of development. Yet another right-wing party starting out, with its message seeming fresh, while yet another right-wing party is at the end of its road, scandal-ridden and having proved that it never really had any new ideas to begin with.
Fifth. What happens next? Local elections in the fall of 2025, meaning that there is virtually no time left in which to prepare for them. I suspect the coalition will do everything in its power to make sure Estonian residents who hold a Russian passport (perhaps also stateless persons) could not vote in the election.
Non-Estonian voters sent a clear enough signal at European elections, but neither the coalition, nor Isamaa and ERKE plan to solve their problems.
For the right-wing forces, these voters constitute the problem, alongside Centrists, and they are trying to solve this "problem" by violating the Constitution if necessary. It is possible to resist this pressure by setting the principle of "divide and conquer" in contrast with Estonia's political national unity.
For me, the main outcome of the European Parliament election is that attempts to manipulate the electorate did not work 100 percent or even 50 percent. But everything is only beginning. The circus is here to stay and the show must go on.